Communicating Hydrological Hazard-Prone Areas in Italy With Geospatial Probability Maps

Diodato N., Borrelli B., Panagos P., Bellocchi G., Bertolin C

Publication Date:

The present work illustrates for the first time downscaled spatial pattern probabilities of erosive density to identify damaging hydrological hazard-prone areas in Italy. The hydrological hazard was estimated from the erosivity density exceeded the threshold of 3 MJ ha−1 h−1 in Italy. To this end, a lognormal kriging (LNPK) provided a soft description of the erosivity density in terms of exceedance probabilities at a spatial resolution of 10 km, which is a way to mitigate the uncertainties associated with the spatial classification of damaging hydrological hazards. Hazard-prone areas cover 65% of the Italian territory in the month of August, followed by September and October with 50 and 30% of the territory, respectively. The geospatial probability maps elaborated with this method achieved an improved spatial forecast, which may contribute to better land-use planning and civil protection both in Italy and potentially in Europe.

STAPER categories:
  • A1: Assess degraded ecosystems
  • B4: Review, improve or establish terrestrial and marine spatial planning processes
  • C1: Identify appropriate measures for conducting ecosystem restoration
  • D2: Adjust plans, expectations, procedures, and monitoring through adaptive management

Resource Type:
Peer-reviewed Article

Frontiers in Environmental Science